Thursday, November 24, 2016

Correlation and Causation dilemma

If you are a management scholar, you will come whether phenomena is correlated or one causing the other. Naturally there are a lot of quasi statistical techniques to check causation and correlation between variables. Suppose, A happens when B happens and B happens when C happens. So can we say A happens when C happens. Also B causes A and C causes B. Can we say C causes A?

For example lets say, I fall sick (A) whenever i get drenched in rain (B) and I drench (B) when it rains (C). Also drenching (B) caused fever (A) and rain (C) caused drenching (B). So can we say rain (C) caused me to fall sick (A). In this case we can say the wording says rain caused me to fall sick, there is another event (B), the drenching that is the primary cause for me to fall sick. If it rains and i dont get drenched there is no possibility of me getting sick. But i have worded the problem in such a way that rain caused me to fall sick.

You can find umpteen situations where causation and correlation are not properly understood. Lets simplify. Causation is the immediate cause/causes for an event to happen. It may be possible that when 1 or many variables come together, then only the event happens. Obviously cause and effect variables are directly related. We term the other variables (C) that either moderate or create the other variables (B) that directly causes the final event (A) to happen, which then we say that A,B and C is correlated as in our rain example.

Lets make the above points clear. In a family, lets say you are the son. Your cause (A) is because of your parents (B) and You (A) and Siblings(C) are related, since C has no way directly impacted your creation and existence. Your relatives, lets say your cousins (D) are correlated with A. Now what is the relation between A, B, C and D. Obviously B caused A. C is correlated to B. and D is also correlated to A. Please note that B is a result of effort of two variables (father and mother). You would not have existed even if one of them did not put the effort to create you. It is two variables acting in tandem efforts that created you. Hence these 2 variables are correlated in creating you (B). But these 2 variables when it came together in a single variable (B) caused you (A).

I hope I have made correlation and causation dilemma a little simpler.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Earth's magnetic core a Gigantic Eagnet

The other day i was flying on a plane, 9000 ft above ground. The plane wobbled for a few seconds during the flight in the air before continuing in its trajectory. My thoughts were getting attracted to Gravity. I was influenced by Interstellar movie and a video on facebook showing how bird's feathers and a basketball falling from same heights had same speeds in a vacuum chamber. I was interested to learn that the gravitational force is different for these two bodies since the feather is lighter in mass. I am deliberately using the term "mass" in place of "weight" as weight and force have same dimensional units while mass is a property of physical matters. I imagined a magnet and i imagined two iron weights of different masses getting attracted at the same speeds by it. The magnet pulled them with different forces with heavier object attracted with a larger force than the other.

Now the thought was more concentrated on gravitational pull. i imagined earth's core must consist of an all masses attractive (plastic, iron, steel, etc etc) magnet which is yet to be unravelled in science. I will name this magnet as "EAGNET". This "Eagnet" will derive its name from Earth plus Magnet.

As i imagine this eagnet will have the same principle of a blackhole, attracting any object within its pull intensity (escape velocity concept). This Eagnet will be one of the biggest discoveries in science of all times and i am sure someone someday will design or find a eagnet, This will have a big ramification for future discoveries and technologies.