Thursday, November 24, 2016

Correlation and Causation dilemma

If you are a management scholar, you will come whether phenomena is correlated or one causing the other. Naturally there are a lot of quasi statistical techniques to check causation and correlation between variables. Suppose, A happens when B happens and B happens when C happens. So can we say A happens when C happens. Also B causes A and C causes B. Can we say C causes A?

For example lets say, I fall sick (A) whenever i get drenched in rain (B) and I drench (B) when it rains (C). Also drenching (B) caused fever (A) and rain (C) caused drenching (B). So can we say rain (C) caused me to fall sick (A). In this case we can say the wording says rain caused me to fall sick, there is another event (B), the drenching that is the primary cause for me to fall sick. If it rains and i dont get drenched there is no possibility of me getting sick. But i have worded the problem in such a way that rain caused me to fall sick.

You can find umpteen situations where causation and correlation are not properly understood. Lets simplify. Causation is the immediate cause/causes for an event to happen. It may be possible that when 1 or many variables come together, then only the event happens. Obviously cause and effect variables are directly related. We term the other variables (C) that either moderate or create the other variables (B) that directly causes the final event (A) to happen, which then we say that A,B and C is correlated as in our rain example.

Lets make the above points clear. In a family, lets say you are the son. Your cause (A) is because of your parents (B) and You (A) and Siblings(C) are related, since C has no way directly impacted your creation and existence. Your relatives, lets say your cousins (D) are correlated with A. Now what is the relation between A, B, C and D. Obviously B caused A. C is correlated to B. and D is also correlated to A. Please note that B is a result of effort of two variables (father and mother). You would not have existed even if one of them did not put the effort to create you. It is two variables acting in tandem efforts that created you. Hence these 2 variables are correlated in creating you (B). But these 2 variables when it came together in a single variable (B) caused you (A).

I hope I have made correlation and causation dilemma a little simpler.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Earth's magnetic core a Gigantic Eagnet

The other day i was flying on a plane, 9000 ft above ground. The plane wobbled for a few seconds during the flight in the air before continuing in its trajectory. My thoughts were getting attracted to Gravity. I was influenced by Interstellar movie and a video on facebook showing how bird's feathers and a basketball falling from same heights had same speeds in a vacuum chamber. I was interested to learn that the gravitational force is different for these two bodies since the feather is lighter in mass. I am deliberately using the term "mass" in place of "weight" as weight and force have same dimensional units while mass is a property of physical matters. I imagined a magnet and i imagined two iron weights of different masses getting attracted at the same speeds by it. The magnet pulled them with different forces with heavier object attracted with a larger force than the other.

Now the thought was more concentrated on gravitational pull. i imagined earth's core must consist of an all masses attractive (plastic, iron, steel, etc etc) magnet which is yet to be unravelled in science. I will name this magnet as "EAGNET". This "Eagnet" will derive its name from Earth plus Magnet.

As i imagine this eagnet will have the same principle of a blackhole, attracting any object within its pull intensity (escape velocity concept). This Eagnet will be one of the biggest discoveries in science of all times and i am sure someone someday will design or find a eagnet, This will have a big ramification for future discoveries and technologies. 

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

In weak lies the strength

Seems like the world doomed for me
A weak moron of taking the strong
I fell in those times
Hurt and Bruised, I stood up
Ready to fight them again
The strength of theirs feared me
I knew the fall wouldn't hurt me so much
As when they fall
World will unshackle
With their downfall comes the new one
I grew stronger in their place
Unknowing for a weak to bring me down
And I heard the whisper of air in my ear
My dear, in weak lies the strength

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

kaadal

நீ கவிதையானால், நான் அதன் வார்தைகளாகுவேன் !
நீ கார்மேகமானால், நான் அதன் மழைதுளிகலாகுவேன்!
நீ கற்பூரமானால், நான் அதன் எரியும் நெருப்பாகுவேன்!
நீ பூக்களானால், நான் அதன் நறுமணம்   பறப்பும் மகரந்தமாகுவேன் !
நீ இசையானால், நான் அதன் ஸ்வரமாகுவேன்!
உன் உயிரில் கரைந்துபோனேன் !
என் உயிரை காண்பதற்க்கு !

Friday, April 19, 2013

The bliss of truth

The truth is denied to everyone in this informational world. Beyond the reign of truth lies the truth that there is no truth. You may say this is hypothetical and philosophical. But one must endure life experiences to see this bliss of truth. Why do i say that. A truth may become a lie and a lie becomes a truth in this world of maya. I may sound like a Godmen. But that is not the purpose I am talking for. I am a sojourner in a place called Life. History is replete with examples of great people manipulating the minds of people in establishing the so called truths. The mind as per me has infinite space, time and causation. The mind is much deeper than an ocean. It is how we control it and train it to understand the information it receives and processes that establishes truth in us. Every suffering inflicted upon us is not physical but mental in nature. That is why emotions out pour when someone suffers. Even physical pain we feel is because of nerves connected to the brain which houses mind. So everybody knows mind is different from Brain. Everybody possess brain, the physical part. But mind is a omniscient and unique thing. It is constantly evolving with respective to thoughts. And thoughts can be conditioned and shaped over a period of time.

So we should condition the mind for obtaining the truth. The happiness of seeking truth and experiencing it gives much more satisfaction than anything in life. In this world nobody possesses truth. No godmen, including Christ and Buddha, can claim he alone knows the truth. If they say they possess it, they are telling a blatant lie for which everything is true in this universe. The true or false for me is like the question of good or bad thing for me. I am a non dualist by evolution, my understanding of things. There is no light and dark per se as per me.. It is this mind that perceives light and dark, good and bad, true and false and all other dual things that are claimed in life. If we understand this, we can seek truth with fearless and fixated mind.

Hence there is no truth when experiencing the bliss of truth. That alone prevails. Truth as any other nature  made thing is ephemeral, cylic and ever evolving.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

True Freedom

The idea of true freedom is running on my minds offlate. We celebrate our independence day on every 15th August. The other day i watched a tamil film "Paradesi" which is about "Bonded labour" in tea estates during British times. Their freedom was taken away by greedy middleman who misguides them for a sophisticated life and money. An entire village gets enticed by his sweet talk about appropriating money at less time. The hunger at their stomach made them fell to the middleman's talk. With ignorance guiding them, they are bound to suffer and that's what happened. They lead a melancholic life which moved me and made to think a lot about human quotient that played in their lives. A lascivious british general, a sadistic middlemen and his "live in the shadow" followers and bouncers make the life of these bonded labourers a hell, least to say. Yet nobody comes to their rescue. The film has an emotional ending with the "Bonded Labour" hero's wife and new born son in the quest of meeting him ends up in the "Bonded Labour" group. I started to wonder how someone's life can be affected by wicked and self motivated people.

Human life from the time immemorial has been exploited by none other than by its own race. Humans claim that they are social animals. But in any other society of animals, the effort is always in helping the fellow animals. Human beings have surpassed the powers of other species. This world in a sense is ruled by them.

The miseries we see are self inflicted on us. World of Karma theory at once takes away degrees of freedom from us. Its difficult to ascertain the miseries and its causes and hence restriction of freedom. Swami Vivekananda says these miseries inflicted are a mischievous acts of a few people to enjoy the privileges of life. A privilege is something one can flaunt to others that what he did is exclusive and he alone has the right for that. We have made many tough social systems and procedures to safeguard the rights of men and women. But time and again the human race is inflicted upon by the power and intellectual people. I still see people who fold their arms and live below their dignity to earn their living.

The idea of true freedom in our country is baffling and needs a deep thought. We are one of the most populous countries in the world. Hence the economy of demand and supply does not work in favor of us. The apathy towards fellow countrymen, the zeal over advancing interests of one's family and kins, the indifferent attitude towards society and the all selfish attitude of us makes us to devalue the people around us. The plethora of people who are ready to do any job at a very less price which otherwise a struggle in the developed nations is a case of true freedom denied to everyone. Let my country awake.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

The failing assumptions

I was not like this a decade back. As a fresh passout from college, I was having loads of assumptions about knowledge, people and external world. Prima facie, knowledge was not defined by me at that time. I believed external world will be tougher than the college life i was living. College life was not tough and it was very comforting. Engineering has taught me some good and bad things. My assumptions were failing in each of these when i started my actual journey in a job. How judgements were affecting my life. How obtrusive theories i formed during my life were affecting my mental peace. i was made to think; there are good and bad people around us. Frankly i was confused that who are good and who are bad. The dagger called life was piercing my own theories and made it to bust like a needle prick on a balloon.

I am from a very modest and humble background. My father struggled to raise us. Not because he was the sole bread winner but because he started his life at zero wealth. He was motherless at his early stage. He was an angry man with mixed life principles. I spent considerable time with him. My initial thoughts were shaped by his demeanor. I have no regrets that i learnt good and bad things from him. A pertinent question to ask now. I am flummoxed by this good and bad thing question. What is good and bad? I have been ruminating on this for the last couple of years. I have not found a convincing answer. All my education failed to impress me in understanding that. That is a different story. As of now i wanted to keep  it simple. Good means a positive vibration and a socially acceptable order that brings in ready balance of the universe. My strong tamil linguistic education has taught me to understand good and bad by way of assimilating tamil literature at a very tender age. To my sense good and bad is a moral question. One cannot take a judgement about this. It requires a complete investigation of facts and information which mostly we dont have access to. There is no definite answers that has satisfied my mind about good and bad so far. So i have decided to take good and bad as those things that appeals my consciousness. This change of paradigm is one of the multiple reasons why there is a sea change in my behavioral traits.

I was yearning for more and i thought i had to struggle a lot in life in contrast to my comfortable life at college. I always believed that the external world operates in absolute fair and transparency mechanism. Elders are highly knowledgeable and operates with inexplicable integrity and morality. Atleast those who climbed to obtain laurels were hardworking and have no egotism and lives a life of dignity and honour. That is what we were lectured to in our school and colleges. I was an obedient student and completely believed marks i earned in an exam was a true reflection of my potential. It was true to an extent too. I always believed that poor people are poor because they were wretched because of lack of education and education alone will lift them out of poverty. There were few mischiefs in my college who always acted selfish and did things with them being the cynosure. I always thought that these people learn their lessons in a hard way and will come to terms during the course of life. I also saw a good number of people speaking fluent engligh and lightening thinking are many times selfish on their own ways. I was jealous at them. They could roam with best girls in the college while i was struggling to speak a line in english. I was a male chauvinist anyway and my priority is not to cheat anyone who trusted me. Somehow i was not comfortable of entertaining a girl at the cost of someone's friendship. I also saw a few girls taking advantage of the flirting boys interms of deriving pleasure of all sorts. But there were obedient girls too. I belong to a conservative society and those times i comfortably ignored why these girls are taking advantage of boys or vice versa. I am a fan of Rajinikant, a south superstar who purported an axiom that a Macho man should not run behind a girl or money and they should come to him on its own. But to my dismay none came till now and i am not married yet. I sincerely wait for that moment. I was not good in English at the time of my college joining. My father was against a fancy life and luxury. He ridiculed rich people for morally wrong. I have completely believed in that theory that those who are rich and well to do are selfish and does every wrong thing to inherit wealth. The feeling was so deep that i started to dislike the concept of wealth accumulation. I was directionless and thats why i was studying and what is the whole and sole purpose of life. My choices were driven by parental pressure, sibling rivalry and jealousy of seeing wealth among educated people. i sincerely believed that a good engineering degree will earn me a job and hence loads of money.

The other assumption that went  wrong was when i thought that in order to network with people, you must be seeing, interacting and stay in touch with them often. But the last decade has taught me that network is primarily decent stayin touch and fulfilling each other's demand that arises out of relationship. it is hard to network without motive which is against one of the tenets of mahabharatha.

My assumptions are ever falling. I started to wonder whether it is worth taking assumptions for? i have not got a convincing answer yet.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Like the phoenix



Life has hit me down as ever
Will I stay on ground or rise back?
That’s the question in mind
Whats the thing of staying on ground
I will ever be like a hypocrite
With a desire of not to fight
And seeing the miseries around me
No strength to change anything upon
Now I realize
In rising lies the fall and
The fall lies the raising
It’s a circle I thought
With no beginning and end
Like the phoenix
Sure to go back to ashes
But only to rise again.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

My father's death

Today is my father's 17th day after he lost  his worldly life. Last 16 days has been one of horrifying and saddest moments of my life. Never in my life i have cried so much.. My father's last moments with me is running like a black and white movie in the background. I wanted to express my grievance in some forum and i chose my own blog rather than putting it somewhere. At the end of my blog, i wanted to have a new beginning with a positive approach to life.

It all started with my catching a flight to Chennai to attend my cousin brother's marriage in Chennai. It was all usual and i did not find anything circumspect that something terrible is going to happen in the next 2 days. I reached home at 10.30 pm with the help of my brother in law. I found my father settled in his bedroom and as usual i did not go and wish him.. i don't know all throughout my life, he has only come to see, call and care for me. After finishing my dinner and when i was trying to settle, he came from his bedroom and asked me how am i.. i did not even wish him as usual and did not ask how he was keeping his health.. As i write this, tears are rolling down from my eyes. i feel i did not take care of him enough.. In his usual style he started listing down the things i should do the next day. Firstly he asked me to go to post office and start the formalities for getting back my NSC matured amount. Secondly he asked me whether i will visit Tirupathi for Lord Balaji and if so asked me to go to T Nagar and get myself registered for the darshan... Thirdly his most haunted subject, my marriage. I was all the time avoiding eye contact with him for this subject because i always felt he may chose a life partner of his choice for me.. Many of my choices in  my life are influenced by him. My schooling, what dress to wear, where to go, how to go, REC Trichy, Mechanical engineering etc etc. He was always there for me till i attained the age of 21 when i passed out engineering degree. Hence i was a little worried that he will push his choice on me for my marriage. We agreed that once he comes back from Tirupathi, we will visit some of the profiles he has shortlisted based on the horroscope. He asked me to give him a call next day to tell me on the profiles i liked.. Then we spoke some usual stuff and my mother pulled him on a point that he wanted to make engagement in a week time. Then he went back to sleep and after sometime he was calling my niece incessantly for which me and my mother started yelling at him. Frankly we did not know that that was his last night with us. My mother and I then retired to the bedroom where he was sleeping. As usual he made his bedding perfectly to suit him and kept a mosquito bat nearby him. He always wanted a noiseless, mosquito-less and broom cleaned room so that he can have a good sleep. Atleast till 60, he only used to sleep in the night and even if he sleeps in the afternoon, he wakes up fast and do something or the other. After 10 or 15 minutes, he was hitting mosquito with the bat. I think that was the last moment he was with me and i never knew that he will ever sleep alongside with me. Next day morning he left our house Tirupathi by walk and i can only hear some rumblings. My mother just gave a usual send off to him not realizing that he will never be back to us in his real form.

The next day i went to my sister's and cousin brother's place. I stayed at my cousin brother's place during the evening and night. Last night, my father asked me to give him a call next day around 6 pm and give him feedback. Again, i ignored him and did not give him a call. Around 8.30 pm, my brother in law gave me a call and told me that my father wanted to talk to me. I was not aware that it will be his last call to me.. all throughout my life he was the one who has taken care of me. We spoke and i felt he was satisfied with my answers especially about my marriage for which i told him that i am willing to see the shortlisted girls and take a decision after considering pros and cons. He retired the call and i was a little apprehensive that he might have found that me and my mom are at my cousin's place which is against his protocol. However he did not ask a question about it.

I and my mother slept at different rooms and i did not get good sleep as it is a new place and it was a little chill. Next day i woke up at 5 am and started completing my usual bathing and toilet stuff.. again i did not find anything usual. i was ready by 6 am and went to meet my relatives in the morning. My mother was ready and my relatives were getting ready for my brother's marriage. it was all usual and we started around 6.45 am towards mandap. i and my mom went in a scooty and on the way picked up some money from ATM. I did some helping stuff to my brother in arranging things and was talking to his brother in law as per my brother instruction. I received a call from my brother in law around 7.15 am and i felt it is very unusual. i felt it was not a necessary call to me.. i was a little uneasy to pick the call. reluctantly i picked to hear from my brother in law that my father was ill.. aww.. i asked if anything serious and for which he all answered that "everthing is over" and my father is dead. i was shellshocked and dont know what to say.. i told him to check him throughly for which he said he is going to a doctor. i went to my second cousin brother and my chittappa (my father's brother) and broke the news. they too were shocked. Now its my turn to tell my mom.. she was talking to someone and i asked her to come out. When she came out i broke that my father is serious and when she insisted to tell me the truth, i told her that his husband is dead. she did not believe as she repeatedly kept saying that as per his horoscope he will stay till 76 years and 2 months.

After some calls and messages to my brother in law to try and check up for him with doctors, we realized that its all over. We reached home and received my father's body. I went to receive him from the van and i did not believe he is dead. he looked like he was in a deep sleep. Me, mom and my second sister cried and cried that we lost a person who unconditionally loved us in this world. We cried that he did not enjoy himselves for the sake of us. He was such a lovely father and husband and we cried that we will miss him in our lives. I certainly dont have words to express my sorrow that how i miss my father for what he was for me and to my family.

It was then all routine that i called up his friends and relatives about his death. Many did not believe he was dead. He was so active and dynamic that he can give any young person a run for his money in doing things. About 400-500 people attended the funeral, his last journey in this world.  I then took many of them to my father's body and they started sharing their last moments with him. Almost all of them told me that his last worry in his life was to arrange marriage for me. Tears started rolling down my eyes that he cared for me so much and i never reciprocated it in my life. i dont know ever i can do anything to him in return. i had interaction with his friends and relatives who recalled his life memories and for many they said he is indispensable.

Its time for me to recount his life and there is no doubt that he is a real hero for me and to many for the way he lived and achieved things in life. The earliest memory of him is he lost his mother at the age of twelve and left Jayamkondam to stay with his Mausi, Vijayathamma in Tanjore. He studied from 1st to 8th there before returned Jayamkondam to complete his 9th, 10th and PUC. The upbringing taught him that he should be impatient in doing things and being angry is a virtue to achieve many things. He felt that self-respect and self-esteem is more valuable than food and money. Being from a village, he had limited exposure to how the capitalist world operated. He started forming his own theories. From his friend Shanmugam, i recollect that he was elder to many of his friends by 4 years and had a moustache even at 9th standard. As per my Grandpa, he started taking interest in automobiles in his 9th standard by started working as a car cleaner. When i was a child he used to tell me stories about him that how he studied.  He barely had food to eat and his father (my grandpa) is a inveterate drinker (that's y my father hated drinkers all throughtout his life and never touched drinking and smoking to my knowledge). He went to school during the day. After school hours he slept for 5-6 hours and woke up around 12 'o clock. He then studied for 3-4 hours. In the early morning, he used to do tailoring before going to school. He believed that hard work can only bring someone up. All thoughout his life he was a early riser. I never never in my life seen him sleeping after 5 am in the morning. He also believed that mutitasking is essential to make a comfortable living but he never managed to scale it up. Otherwise today my father would have been one of the billionaires in the world. He is never afraid putting hard work and always curious to learn new things in life. I still remember he pestering me to teach him hindi and computer in his old days.

He finished his 9th, 10th and PUC and got admitted in a polytechnic in Seerkali near Chidambaram. I remember him showing me his college whenever we passed the same by bus. I should recount my experience of roaming around with him. He is very particular for time and his schedule. He is very interested in travelling especially the temples and relatives' places. Very often he took me with him and that has taught me how much simplicity is of value. We sometimes spend nights in temples and streets and just as he received mouthfuls from me and my mother for being a miser and made us live like that. But the real intention is to teach us how worst a life can get and i should never be worried in case if i happen to live in the streets sometime in my life. He recounted that during his college studies, he managed to get money from my gandpa to pay off his bills. But it is all uncertain as my grandpa usually told him that he does not have money for his studies. He somehow managed money for his studies from friends and relatives. I remember him telling me that his close friend and a relative paid him fees once he was in dire straits. May be that is the reason, he never showed me the difficulty in paying my college fees. he was always prompt and somehow managed money for my college fees which is astronomical to his standards.

After finishing his diploma, he joined Gudiatham polytechnic as a lab assistant and then managed to work in Kirloskar oil engines. During these phases, he was diversying his skills from automobiles to plumbing to electricity. I usually hear from his friends that he had immense will power and ready to face any challenges to finish up a task. After working in Kirloskar, he managed to get a job in BSNL and in return tied a knot to my mother. Well, my mother has a lot role to play in  his life and our lives. She had good skills and better intellectual skills when compared to her sisters. My father and my mother has worked a lot to bring up our family from scratch as they did not get adequate support from their parents. My father thought he will do good to his relatives and family members and hence brought his own and cousin brothers to Chennai. My mother recounts that it was very tough to manage our family as there were more people and less food to feed. Those were really tough moments for my mother who sometimes slept without food.  My father, short of money then started pulling Autorickshaws to earn extra money. He used to pull auto during the day and work in nightshifts at office. However he had fights with his relatives and my mother's relatives. He is known to be one who becomes very angry and abuses people for small things.. Still people recount how he used to shout on a road for a mistake committed by my maternal uncle.

I wanted to recount my memories with him. My earliest memory is when i was five years old. I was failing in my first standard at Savior Jesus Matriculation School. I remember him that he wanted me to study in a good school. I was the youngest in my family. My sisters were mostly guinea pigs for his experiments. But he did not want to take any chance with me. For example, he used to say that a person who can study good can study at any school and will come up on his own and school has no role to play. He never believed that one should need to study in a good school to become something big in his life. I agree that he is a sterotype, makes quick judgements and does not give away his priniciples so easily. But he was a man of principles, never begged anybody and sacrificed everything for his family and sometimes for his relations. So he lovingly, against his principles, made me join a matriculation school by giving donation and regular fees. This was when i was the favorite student to some of my teachers during my LKG and UKG at a different location in Chennai. So he decided that he will make me join the best school. However i was flunking my 1st standard very badly. i don't know the reason, may be the change of place. I was failing miserably. I think after my half yearly results, i was terribly afraid to tell my father that i flunked my half yearly exams. He did not take it seriously my quarterly results as he thought change of location is the reason for my flunking. But gave me mouthfuls and beatings and warned me that he will never my report card if i flunk further. So this time i did not want to take a chance and just like that in a red pen which was not writing properly i gave 100 out of 100 and put some shit on my own. That was my first scandal i have ever done in my life. But i was very small to do such a scandal and i was easily caught by my father. Needless to say i was beaten to hell and was confined to stay at home. He met my teacher who said he needed private tuition. He then started abusing my teacher that want of private tuition she is failing his son. Then ultimately he challenged her that he will make sure his son will come up in studies without private tuitions and infact not making him study in a matriculation ever. I was then asked to study at home. He regularly took tuitions to me and he brought some of the finest English books. He was very worried that somehow i was losing  track of my studies and he could not digested it. He spent a whole lot of time into me teaching English and Maths. He declared me that he will not send me to school unless i vow to get 1st rank and he was all preparation for me to send me look after the cattle. I was very afraid and told him that i will study and he made me join a corporation school nearby directly in 2nd standard after writing a basic exam that i am capable of handling 1st standard lessons. It was a Tamil medium and i always came 1st in my studies. I was the favorite student among the teachers yet again. He was very happy for me and yet he did not stop him selves in teaching me. I learnt that how bold he was and ready to challenge anyone if he finds it to be faulty. I miss your teachings, Nina. You have taught me to be strong at your bad phase. You have taught me to be self confident and work on our judgments. You have taught me to challenge people boldly when they are wrong.

After my 5th standard, he wanted me to shift to an English medium school. Once again my sisters were the reason. My sisters gave a feedback that learning English will be tougher at 11th standard which they were undergoing. However he made sure that he will not put me in a matriculation or a hi-fi schools in chennai. I once again studied in a government school. But he never lost touch of my studies. He usually sits with me and taught me subjects. I still remember he coming back from my office and once i see his bicycle, i run to my home to start studying. I just hated that he did not liked any sports and wanted me to concentrate on studies full time. He was thrusting his childhood theories on me. That made me a little annoyed to him. He used to beat me if i happen to play cricket more than the time prescribed by him. But what i all understand is that he was having a purpose. He wanted me to study which he terribly missed it because of poverty in his life. I was never said no for any books and education material. But i was never encouraged to take up any game. All he was saying if i wanted to be a cricketer or any sportsperson, i should be of national repute. He had his calculations.

He was no ordinary man. All throughout his life he had a single ambition of bringing up his family to a level that the world can know.

He used to tell me to go out and explore the world till then. When i was a kid, he used to take me to his office and introduce me to his colleagues and allow me to look at the office stuff. As a kid he made me roam around most of his favorite temples and relative houses, shout at me for not learning his favorite subjects automobiles, electricity, plumbing, painting, gardening etc. Tears are rolling down that i will terribly miss his well known multitasking skills.. he was named "all in all alagurajan (Multitasker)" by his colleagues..

Just a pause i took before i continue writing this. I could not find time in the last few months to continue. But its almost a year and in sometime that i will do rituals for my father's first death anniversary.  For the past few months i have become spiritual, strong, mature and ready to face challenges that are impending in my life. In fact the greatest learning that my father gave me is that after his death, he is still alive and will always with me. This i write because not only i experienced him in some occasions but i find that there is something in me that he wants me to achieve. In this quest, i became very spiritual and started reading more about the metaphysical part of life. I feel the question that "What after death" will remain a secretive ever. But i wish whereever he be, he will always be good. I pray that i will make amends for certain things  in my lifetime and i am whole and soul responsible for making amends that he could not do in his lifetime. Nina, i love you, i miss you.. Seriously u have been an excellent father but i have never paid the attention that you wanted me too. But let me do my duty. Let you be my path. Let you be my destination. Let you be my wisdom. Let you be my truth. I know I troubled you a lot. But if at all i am given a chance to serve you, i will do my best. But i want you to reach heaven, be happy and let your soul be at peace. I want you to be with me always. The biggest learning you taught me is the last few months after your death. I have become strong with you leaving me and Amma. but we know you are always there for us and would come back whenever we want you to. But let me assure you i am still trying to figure out my path as last few months has not been the best. But i dont want to bog you down with this. Because i dont want to disturb you. No longer i want you take me as a burden on your shoulders. Let me do my duty as a son. Let you be at PEACE.

Friday, July 6, 2012

To the reader of my blog

If you are a passerby to my blog and wanted to have a peak, you are very well welcomed! but as such my blog is not intended to attract traffic or attention of girls. It is not a Public Relation activity that will spread the aura of me to the external world. My blog isn't about fancy English words or complex sentence structures that will educate people who aspire good scores in GMAT, CAT, GRE or for any competitive exam.. It isn't about any particular interest or topic. It can be as weird as my day dream to politics to physics to philosophy.. So as a reader, you may not be able to sequence my blog topics at different dates.. My blog is not for you! It is for me.! i am plain straightforward in saying that and may sound haughty to you. I beg your pardon for that. But my blog is a reflection of events, situations and experiences that have shaped and will shape up my inner thoughts which i want to record. This record is a souvenir for me that when i sit back and want to feel nostalgic of my past, i can refer this.

Why i started writing blogs? I write blogs for the simple reason that it makes me feel proud, define situations properly and brings me clarity of thought. When i write, i feel the intensity of the issue and feel it makes me think better. It gives me an opportunity to describe an event in my own way. Overall when i write a blog, i am myself thus discovering my soul if not fully but partially.


Saturday, June 16, 2012

Delhi to Chennai by Golden Quadrilateral

I hate to write travel blogs since i feel i dont have the flare of explaining things that are better done by others. But this time i cant resist my Delhi-Chennai, 2950kms, six day drive. Though exactly not a travel blog, it can well be classified as one of my experiences of life.

When i was transferred to Bangalore/Pondycherry on my request, i was largely expecting that they are not going to allow any allowances including baggage allowance which i wanted genuinely this time. Never mind, i started planning how to dispose my few household items and carry those for which i received less money. I started preparing that i will carry those remaining baggage in my alto car. People started to scream, written me off as miser, adventurous and crazy pagal that i have planned such a trip. Not many encouraged me to continue on my idea of travelling from delhi to chennai on my own car without any co-passengers. Hearing that i am travelling by road from delhi to chennai, two of my friends interested to join me but somehow it did not work out. Neverthless i was determined that i will cover this distance by car. I started to plan well in  advance and spoke to my friends who were staying on the way that i will be coming to their houses and if required stay there. They are all excited and told me that i can visit them anytime. I gave approximate timeline of visiting them. After that i had a look at my car and wanted to convert it into a half truck carrying baggage and myself. I was convinced that it can be done without any big hurdles. I handed over one big bag to my friend to carry when he visits chennai by plane. I had done wheel alignment, washing and taken tips from the maruti service guy for long drive. He assured me that the car is safe to drive. My only apprehension was that my car should support me in this endeavor. My drive plan was simple. Gurgaon to Udaipur in day 1, Udaipur to Ahmedabad in day 2, Ahmedabad to pune in day 3, Rest at day 4,  Pune to Bangalore in day 5 and Chennnai to bangalore depending upon my work in bangalore.

Once i was relieved from my duties on 31st May, i came back home at 5 pm. I wanted to load my car well before the sunset as arrangement in dark is not recommended. I started to utilise each inch of my car. One of the biggest challenges was to accomodate my Split A/C and its connectors. Apart from this, i had to load five bags, three buckets full of kitchen utensils, two bedsheets, some files neatly put in a small bag, 3-4 two litre water bottles and 2-3 small bags. I made sure that the view through the rear view mirror is manageable. Dominic, my roommate and friend helped me in the arrangement. After arrangement i collected sweets for my friends from Bikaneirwala. I am all set for embarking on one of my journeys of life.

At 4 am, i woke up to find no water at home. I bathed with whatever water that was available and by 5 am i was ready to get behind the steering wheel. Literally i was excited as i am going against the people wishes. Neverthless those helped me plan better and manage the risks on the way. I dont want to belittle them as those advises helped immensely in my mental preparation. I lit a diya/campour infront of my car and prayed that nothing unusual should happen on the way. So here i go. I started my engine, freed my parking brakes, put on the gear, released the clutch and slowly pressed the accelerator. My journey started, keeping the well dreaded advises in my mind. When the first toll came, i forgot that i should secure all toll chits to calculate how much toll i paid on the way and hence threw the toll chit away. I took some photographs on the way and my first destination was Jaipur. It wasn't a pleasant drive as usual as Delhi-Jaipur is always a busy highway. I crossed jaipur and took a juice break. At 11 am, i started my drive towards udaipur which was still good 420 kms away. I was befriended by a guy called arindam who was relocating to pune for his business. We made a deal that we will drive together. On the way we had lunch around 3.30 pm. I was hell hungry by then. It was very very hot and my alto car a/c was awesome. Arindam seemed to be an seasoned driver. He was driving a zen and he was well ahead whenever we started together. He shared about his business and we spoke about auto sector, jamshedpur and a lot. He seemed to be a very aggressive guy, typical of anyone who comes from bihar and jharkhand area. Very affable too.. When he reached udaipur, i was 40 kms behind.  I told him that i am very tired and would like to take rest at udaipur as per my plan. But he was determined to reach mumbai in one go. He started the day from jaipur. So we bid bye to each other over phone. I reached Udaipur and was accommodated as a paying guest at Udaipur.  I told the hosts that i dont need dinner and asked them not to disturb me after that. I phoned some friends and home and hit the bed at 8 pm. I dont know what happened after that. One of my finest sleeps ever. I woke up at 6.30am next day. I checked my mails and was ready to face day 2.

I had a look around Udaipur. Honestly it is one of the best places i have visited as a tourist. The city palace was outstandingly well maintained for attraction. The lake palace hotel of Taj is one of its kind. It was a good 6-7 hours spent for sightseeing at Fatehpur Lake, Nehru Park and market place. Around 4 pm i had lunch.I left udaipur at 4.45 pm to ahmedabad. Udaipur-Ahmedabad was one of the finest driving experience. Less traffic, beautiful mountain roads in between, sun setting in the evening and a well maintained road. About 120 kms way from ahmedabad is a diversion to baroda. I thought for a while that should i go to baroda directly instead of ahmedabad. It would save me good 25kms. However i wanted to keep the promise i made to my friend that i will be visiting him. Hence i drove to ahmedabad. In ahmedabad, i was instructed wrongly by my friend which resulted in having a look at ahmedabad city. I am an admirer of Narendra Modi, not for his leadership skills but his governance skills. He has proved that growth can be possible with moderate inflation with better governance. The role of government is to facilitate the life of people to live good if not comfortably. But i was surprised to know that traffic signals were switched off at 8 pm and hence people were crossing the road haywire. I took a look at the dedicated corridor for Urban bus system. But honestly the city lacked something vivacious, the colour, any urban guy will look into. It does not house skyscraper and ofcourse big malls and the traffic sense was a bit misplaced. The road signs were visibly absent that made my drive less passionate. Hence i came to a conclusion that Gujarat can still be better governed. After 2 hours of struggle in the city for searching my friend's home, i finally reached his place at 10.30 pm. We had a chit chat and exchanged pleasentaries. I took dinner at 11pm. I gossiped with my friend and told him that i will leave early in the morning to bombay via baroda where i asked my friend to arrange breakfast. Next day i started my journey at 6.30am after bidding bye to my friend. I had a tea at a nearby stall and started my journey to Baroda. I neglected the expressway fearing exorbitant toll and hence took the normal NH highway. It was not a pleasant drive. Constricted by traffic and two way road, i reached baroda and friend's place at 10 am. I was ecstatic in seeing him as we parted recently after having spent the last two years together. I had a breakfast at his home and with a heavy heart left his home at 11.30 am. I hit the highway to Bombay. Again the drive was not good with loads of trucks on the way. Near barunch, i got into a traffic jam which extended my journey by 30 mins. After taking lunch near surat. I was racing to Bombay and suddenly a thought flashed my mind. I wanted to see my old rented house, street and the temple i used to visit when i was in Bombay. Also i was running late for pune as bombay traffic will allow me to reach pune only after 12 midnight. I had some friends at bombay and called up one of my close friend who used to work with me at vijayawada. I told him that i can stay at his house and reminisce the good old days, TATA motors and more. He asked me to come to Kharghar which is on way to pune. I told him i will reach late as i wanted to go to my old rented house and meet some friends. I went to Thane straight, visited my old apartment, temple and had kulfi which is one of the finest even today.  I left Thane at 9.30 pm and went to Kharghar. I hugged my friend as i met him after long four years. He is very close ever since our time at TATA motors. We chit chatted and it was mostly about the company. We exchanged a lot of ideas and went to sleep at 12.45 in the night. I told him that the next day drive is only till pune. I wanted to show my vehicle, the beauty of this side of the country. Ever since i stayed in mumbai, i enjoyed the freshness of the Mumbai-Pune expressway and the greenery. I loved that place. During rainy season, it is much more beautiful.

To my bad luck, it did not rain next day and it was a dry day. I drove to Lonavala and Khandala. I went to buchi dam and it was dry and was not pleasent at all. I drove to tiger hills and had a view of bombay and the valley places. It was beautiful. I thought to myself that i miss my old days at bombay. i drove down to Amby Valley and took a look from outside as i needed a pass to enter inside. I understood how much name, fame, money and power is worth off though all these things are fragile and can vanish like a mist disappearing when the sun rises. I took a deep breadth and said to myself that I am naked always. No one is superior and virtually needed to take case by case to come to decisions. There 's no one solution that fits everything. There is no point of arguments. We come to a decision based on our understanding of our situation. See, how i veered from my blog topic. I was all along philosopical throughout the journey. I wanted to find the purpose of my life and my understanding of why i live here.

After taking chikki at lonavala, i took a drive along Bombay-Pune Expressway. I showed my car that how India has so good roads. It was a dream drive and i reached pune at 6 pm. I reached my friend's place at 7 pm. After having dinner and checking out his newly constructed apartment, i went to sleep. I realised the place has water problem. I got interesting insights that how politicians control the basic necessities of life like water and transportation in Pune. Next day i left for bangalore at 6.30 am. I took the Satara NH and drove to Kolhapur. What a drive it was. I would rank this drive as the finest in the entire stretch. I never knew that this part of the country is so scenic and beautiful. I saw Dharwad and Hubli on the way. It  rained along the way and it was godly. I reached Hubli at 2 pm and felt gastronomic and hence explored Kamat on the Highway. Ate Idli and vada. I then took the highway and hit bangalore at 9 pm. I drove good 850 odd kms. I checked in at the guesthouse and had a good sleep.

Next day i finished off the work at Bangalore and headed for chennai. My trip to bangalore was curtailed as the company did not seem to waste Guest House on me. The indifferent nature of the HR and admin people made me wonder that how human touch eluded from their mind. Its a different experience. I felt i was not treated properly and not looked at as an asset. Anyways that is a different story. So after finishing off with my work, i hit for Chennai road at 6 pm. I took a wrong road and reached Chitoor. A strech of 80kms is patchy. I reached chennai at 2 am and hit the sack. I patted myself that i have completed the drive of my life.

Well, the entire journey is an experience i would like to cherish all my life. Moreover the journey has taught me so much philosophically. All throughout the journey i was thinking what i will be doing in my life. The question of SURVIVAL does not seem to bother me anymore. Simply I am rejuvenated after this journey to take the upcoming challenges.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Rewinding the past two years


What can be the more ideal time for me to feel nostalgic about the last two years at POWERGRID than now when my transfer to SR-II will be effected in a few days. My aspiration to join a top consulting company was slowly fading when I graduated out from an IIM and I was all prepared to take up a job in a conventional electric utility convincing myself that I will connect this dot too in my life. My friends screamed at me that I am going to be a “Sarkari Officer”. I mentally pictured a PSU job where hierarchies mattered and files spread from your office cabin to the toilet space.

Hence when I took a late Sunday evening flight from Chennai I was not expecting anything big. I reached Delhi well past midnight. I took a prepaid taxi and was racing to Sector-46 EDC when I had the first glimpse of POWERGRID office. Not exactly a skyscraper but good enough to seek attention with a bold “POWERGRID” nameplate at the top and its logo of tower/hands folded in ‘namaste’ style with one of ‘electricity’ symbol on it. I reached the field hostel at 2 AM and woke up the guard there. He was a little slow in amusing me and I neatly blamed it on the sarkari culture. The person in-charge of the hostel politely told me that I am well past the time that I can be accommodated in EDC. So I was put up in the field hostel for a night and shifted to EDC the next morning. Next day I reached office with a help of lift in a car by an employee working in CP who gave me some interesting insights about POWERGRID. After reaching the office, I started mixing up with other recruits from IIM. Like a conventional ‘girl talk’ or a ‘boy talk’ we engaged in the ‘IIM talk’ which is briefly about placements that year, companies visited, year cut offs, highest salary offered and blah blah. I was asked to fill up a heap of forms but hands started to pain within a few forms as writing has become such a painful activity after 2 years at IIM when you largely use your laptop service from writing an application to examination. Soon after I was sent to the hospital for a Medical check up and was told not to report to office after it. I was so relieved that it was like a professor in an IIM asks you not to come to class if you don’t wish but attendance will be marked for you. The relief was replaced with fear in the hospital when the doctor asked me to collect my own urine and stool samples for laboratory testing. I passed those strenuous tests to get my final appointment letter on 21st April, 2010.

Next few days were spent going through the presentation of different departments and getting exposure to Power Sector. I had previous experience working in private sector and hence I resisted the comparison with it in every aspect. I was largely impressed with the loyalty of employees in POWERGRID, their simplicity and dedication at work that was wholly missing in my last company. Moreover when I saw the top management expecting the IIM recruits to do something different and take initiatives to promote company growth, I felt the onus of creating value to the company. Some were skeptical about my intent to join a PSU and I dodged those questions with an answer that convinced me to join POWERGRID. Well, truly it was not the lack of opportunities for me in the marketplace or a bad economy as they perceived. At the end of the induction, we presented our ideas in bettering the departments which we will be working upon after the completion of induction. Overall, the orientation days gave me an impression that I am going to work with a nimble PSU unlike what I have originally imagined.

After induction, I and one of my friends were asked to report to International Business department for which we were recruited. I had previous experience in sales and marketing and was largely expecting what kind of job I will be doing. I started to replicate some of my past learning in International Business. I was fortunate this time not to work with tough bosses unlike my past. I felt, my co-workers were largely needed a direction to take the International Business forward as it was only spun off in December 2008.  We wanted to quietly make our entry in a clamorous world. Next few months I spent my spare time with the department head in strategizing which geographies and services to focus to reap revenues. It is enjoyable when people listen to your ideas and make you a party to it. I was modeling my thoughts in the direction that businesses must be run on systems and processes that are focused towards customer service and delivery rather than person dependent and constricted by slow decision making and poor customer response. The focus was brought more to the consultancy business where our capabilities lied. My tryst with International Business will end soon but I relished every moment and the challenges of it. Moreover it’s a great satisfaction that I worked on those challenges and tried devising long term sustainable solutions.

So here I am, back to my unlearning stage where I can unwind but derive some memories out of it and mentally prepare myself for a fresh challenge. 

Friday, May 4, 2012

The pain of death


Why people fear to die? So what is the pain of death? how will it be? infact what is pain? Dictionary meaning says it is physical suffering or distress, as due to injury, illness etc.. The other day i was discussing 'death' with my friend asking him why at all people fear death when everyone knows that it is inevitable and an uninvited guest. He tried enlightening me by quoting  Mahabharata that the question i asked was one of five ambiguous questions that the world faces. The other day i saw my father dying of heart attack and what would have been his pain of death. He wanted to live and remain immortal though he is sure that he will die someday. But the day was not known and he was somehow prepared for it. The true pain of death for him is leaving his family and children with a little bit of wealth he accumulated during his life on earth. I hear heart attack is the sudden blockage of blood to heart and the heart stops pumping. So its a pinch, a pinch good enough to stop your breath. So the physical pain was not there. Yet he would have feared death for the sheer pain of leaving this world. But i am not sure. But one thing we all agreed that he had one of the smoothest exists and we are happy for that.

Again for a soldier who is fighting a battle, whats the pain of death. He is sure that death may come anytime but he is unaware about when he is going to experience death. Well, he is only motivated and encouraged by the sacrifice he does for the people he serves. The physical pain is there but he is strong enough to conquer it as his sacrifice bears that pain. He knows that he will leave his family and the nation will take care of them. So why he may fear death and what would have been his pain of death. It could be the sheer knowledge that he as a entity will no longer exist. But i am not sure. 

I have seen old age people somehow wanted to stick to their life rather than die. In this endeavor they become burdensome and hence becomes second child in their life not knowing when they are peeing and shitting sitting there. Well why they fear death and what is the pain of death for them. I am not sure.

Yet some profound people calling upon god soon after they reach 60 asking him for a smooth exit from this world and get submergence with him. The pain could be to reach God, may be. I am not sure why they fear and what is their pain of death. 

So do i fear death and his pain.. I am not sure.. if somebody asks me to die today, will i be ready to die. I dont know. i fear that dying of me will create immense sorrow to my family and friends. But the sorrow will diminish over time and memories stay with them. i fear what will happen to my mother after i die. She has not experienced the world at all in her lifetime. she has become fragile in front of my eyes after my father's death. I fear that i will leave her alone in this world and i would compel her to rue about her remaining days of life. Is it causing me the pain of death. I don't know,. may be i have to think a lot about fear of death and its pain to get convincing answers.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Clapping process

Well, yesterday i was attending our CMD bid adieu function. It was a massive gathering of about 500 people. Just a matter of my hobby, i started observing the clapping phenomenon to understand the people's behavior.   Clapping takes place when most of us agree or appreciate the speaker's part of speech. Clapping is a phenomenon that lasts for minimum of 5 secs to longer depending upon the audience emotions and feeling towards the things that are being said. The clapping starts with a solitary clap at some corner which u can clearly hear before the clapping starts. The solitary clap will be followed by claps by some groups in the audience . It then followed by the real clap when most of the people in the gathering starts clapping. So from the time of the solitary clap to the real clap, there is series of activities that can happen to form a more meaningful audience clapping within few seconds. A very normal observer has a different way to assess whether he should clap or not. He may think the point spoken by the speaker is valid and require appreciation but does not initiate the clap. He may not be of the same group as the clapping group that starts clapping after that solitary clap. He may only clap if he agrees with the point, do not  take initiative of clapping first, and only his group claps.

I can very well co-relate the clapping process to sudden rise or sudden fall in stock markets. So next time when there is a stock market rise or fall, just keep the clapping process in mind.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Quotes

1. In the beginning, i think of an end. In the end, i think of a beginning.
2. The world is unfair and unjust and that is precisely the reason i deserve to win it..

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

What lies ahead in Stock Markets (9th Feb)

These days stock markets are giving sleepless nights to many including me. When the post lehman crisis stock market run never looked comfortable, it all boiled to selling India centric story to boost up the markets.. No doubts, India remains a high growth market in long term.. However what remains to be seen is how India stock market matures as fast as possible so that people heed to something called valuations. Even at current valuations certain companies dont justify its prices, both undervalued and overpriced categories.. In the past, FIIs were successful to move Indian stock markets as per their wish selling some story or the other. However, unlike 2008 this time Indian Investors have done far more better to outsmart FIIs. This is a classic example that Indians cant be duped everytime and Indians have learnt a lot from 2008 crisis.

The recent sell off in stock market is attributed to high near term inflation that will erode profit margins of companies. No doubt, the reasoning is correct.. However we may have to watch whether this expected inflation do match the economic projections.

Well, if u ask me, stock markets should reflect the true sense of how businesses are doing in India. And remember businesses drive stock prices and not the other way round. So ultimately it boils down to how businesses will do in future determines stock market direction in near future.

So how will businesses do in next 3 months. What are all the current problems that businesses are facing. Lets analyse that. The first problem is rising input costs for most businesses. What is fueling these input costs. Liquidity has almost become tight in the market.. Domestic Demand also seems to be subsiding. So next quarter, we should see input costs subsiding but not bottoming out.This will make a case for partial recovery in stock market. However if world economic growth remains robust, i dont see input costs subsiding and hence putting more pressure of its rise (at this point the probability for this seems to be high for next 3 months). The second problem is employee costs. Employee costs will be permanent owing to its downward stickiness. Hence those costs are here to stay unless economic growth is negative and there is panic in terms of unemployment. The other part of operating costs will stay untouched or may go up a little. Interest costs are bound to rise as long as short term rates are higher.

So on a whole, next three months, costs will go up and hence any increase in prices due to this will severely impact demand as liquidity will also dry up. So we see a scenario where demand moderating, costs increasing, and prices stablizing. Now all my eyes are on how US market and the world economy will perform. That is a big trigger for the Indian Stock Markets. Till then we have to sit with uncertain times.


RBI policy action.. How i read it!! (26th Jan 2010)

Well the anticipated wait is over.. RBI and its policy action.. No surprises is what the newspapers read.. But what many failed to notice is the attitude of RBI about India's domestic problems, raising fiscal, Current account deficits and inflation. The message is clear, the government is not doing justice in keeping these measures in check. And ultimately blaming UPA government, if not partially but entirely about the India's ballooning problems. The policies are reckless and corruptions are at their highs. All this makes a case for Mr. Singh to step down from or convince Sonia ji/coalition parties that the problems are serious and need some tough decisions to be made. The second option seems to be unlikely considering that Mr. Singh is soft spoken bureacrat who all his life was faithful to Congress. Hence to restore his value system, his stepping down is essential.

Now not digressing from the topic, the next most awaited event is Budget. I am not expecting that any growth centric, anti-poverty, anti-corrupt and more anti things nature policies will be laid down. The expectations would be rolling back of stimulus partially and implement policies that are election centric. Congress neither have enough coffer to spend nor risk their own private coffer to get empty. But yes, they may stretch fiscal deficit by borrowing more and put more debt to Indian Citizens. Of course that is the price we have to pay for electing this sort of coalition government who needs to satisfy every other Indian.

So what should we do in this kind of environment of short term gains and long term pains. Nothing but to keep pain killers in place. Amen.

Friday, January 14, 2011

What could be the next worst thing in financial markets (14 Jan 2011)

I wake up everyday and ask what could potentially go wrong in the Indian Stock market.. I have not got any convincing answers yet.. Many things come to my mind.. Domestic problems like inflation, interest rates, burgeoning current account deficit, scams and corruptions.. International issues like sovereign debt problems of PIIGS especially Spain and Greece, uncertain macro economic environment of US and Europe, alarming debt to GDP ratio of certain countries and premature asset bubble signs are worrying. Also any kind of unknown shock may also be not surprising. The cause of uncertainties is fairly reflected in the stock market where volatility is the norm in the last few days.

However one thing is sure. India is undergoing far larger domestic problems than ever like raising interest rates and current account deficit. Inflation though became a global phenomenon especially the food prices are raising astronomically everwhere. With US looking strong, dollar will gain strength and gold and other commodities will lose its value in short term, may be a 15-20% cut in next one month. This may happen coupled with the sheer reason of investors trying to secure profit from their investments in these asset classes. I am waiting for the policy action of RBI and budget to happen to see the future direction of the market. If i am a policymaker,I continue with bankers' request for not raising interest levels beyond a .25 basis point. Also will cut CRR and inject liquidity in the system to stimulate credit growth which is very essential for economic growth. The current inflation is fuelled by raising food prices which is more of supply constraints reason that requires long term actions and monetary policy has limited effect on it. So raising the interest rates will not serve the purpose. However I still expect a 25 basis point raise in interest rates. Coming to budget, India's fiscal deficit is at its high and expected to reach more than 5.5%, which is the projected number in last budget. So with twin deficits, current account deficit and fiscal deficit, it all says a reason that rupee will depreciate in coming days. Inspite of raising more than a lakh crore through 3G and IPOs and FPOs fiscal deficit is raising.. Thanks to commonwealth games, the money was burnt, keeping the fiscal deficit at bay. So coming year, i expect partial roll out of many stimulus measures that was given in last two budgets. Excise cuts in autos and no respite in direct taxes and more indirect taxes is on cards. The budget may be considered negative for stock market, that may trigger sell offs.

But who can say? Indian ministers can heed to industrialists and continue to frame policies that are anti-poor and have long term pains. Only time can tell, however i have decided i will sit in cash till the sky gets clear.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Dollar strengthening amidst Quantitative Easing

It seems fed did the right thing by way of recent QE contrary to economists' belief. Lets analyse or try and understand what is happening.. The economist in me always wakes up when these kind of interesting thing happens. Lets analyse this way. QE injected about 600bn USD to give Americans to spend, consume and pop up the economy. This QE and subsequent actions make me believe that FED believes in Monetary easing and not the well accepted Keynesian economics that fiscal policy will make the economy rebound.

Now with more money to spend, all what they did was giving more money to financial wizards who invested it in emerging economies. India has got its share and also american stock markets made a rebound. Also these money found its way to commodities and other liquid items. While stock markets are robust for future earnings of american companies while commodities like crude depend on how does the physical demand for the same rises. There isnt any physical demand for these commodities and hence the speculative money that came did not see much returns. This has made the dollar to strengthen inspite of QE. Hence it can be concluded that QE in future can only result in more speculative money entering stock markets and commodities and will not serve the real purpose of increasing consumption and spends.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Will real estate emerges the best asset class of 2011?

Well, I have a belief that the old favorite real estate asset class will emerge as attracting the most money in 2011. Infact after five years of bull run, real estate is all poised to take a breather. The reasons are many. With no restructuring of loans permitted by central bank and hence mounting repayment of real estate companies will force them to liquidate their existing stock of houses, interest rates, stock markets, gold, silver and other alternative asset classes are at their all time highs,  1 lakh crore with the public and hence these funds in search of a high value high potential asset.. All convince me that real estate will be on a roll this year. However the greedy real estate companies will bite the dust after waiting three or four long years in search of higher prices and hence keeping the common men away in owning a home.