Thursday, January 6, 2011

Dollar strengthening amidst Quantitative Easing

It seems fed did the right thing by way of recent QE contrary to economists' belief. Lets analyse or try and understand what is happening.. The economist in me always wakes up when these kind of interesting thing happens. Lets analyse this way. QE injected about 600bn USD to give Americans to spend, consume and pop up the economy. This QE and subsequent actions make me believe that FED believes in Monetary easing and not the well accepted Keynesian economics that fiscal policy will make the economy rebound.

Now with more money to spend, all what they did was giving more money to financial wizards who invested it in emerging economies. India has got its share and also american stock markets made a rebound. Also these money found its way to commodities and other liquid items. While stock markets are robust for future earnings of american companies while commodities like crude depend on how does the physical demand for the same rises. There isnt any physical demand for these commodities and hence the speculative money that came did not see much returns. This has made the dollar to strengthen inspite of QE. Hence it can be concluded that QE in future can only result in more speculative money entering stock markets and commodities and will not serve the real purpose of increasing consumption and spends.

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